← All projects

Ocado Group · London · 2022 — 2024

Network digital twin

Design and delivery of a decision product that let major retailers simulate and optimize their network before committing capital.

Context

Major retailers needed to reason about network design, cost-to-serve and inventory placement across highly complex, fast-changing operations.

Intervention

  • Led design and delivery of the digital twin from concept to enterprise deployment.
  • Connected engineering, data science, business and operational stakeholders around one fact base.
  • Translated complex optimization capabilities into decisions operators could actually make.

Outcome

  • Up to 40% lower cost-to-serve.
  • Up to 30% lower working capital.

A digital twin of the distribution network

Retail networks fail slowly: capacity fills, bulk purchase quantities outgrow single sites, and third-party warehouses quietly absorb margin. None of that is visible on a spreadsheet. The digital twin made the whole flow — supplier to cross-dock to fulfilment centre to customer — simulatable, so network design, cost-to-serve and inventory placement could be optimised before capital was committed.

The multi-echelon distribution work is the clearest example: a decision that looks operational is in fact a P&L decision worth around half a point of EBITDA.

The questions the twin had to answer

  • Where should stock physically sit?

    A large share of warehouse space is immobilised by slow-moving units bought in bulk — around 30% of stockholding rotates more than 30 days after inbound, while grid utilisation in some fulfilment centres reached 98%.

  • Direct, third-party, or in-house consolidation?

    Three replenishment tactics coexist: supplier direct to a fulfilment centre, outsourced cross-docking through a 3PL, and in-house consolidation where one fulfilment centre supplies the others.

  • What does each option actually cost?

    Cost-to-serve is modelled at unit level across inbound, outbound, third-party billing and transport, so a network decision can be argued in pence per unit rather than in opinions.

What the simulation showed

  • 3PL billing is the expensive path

    £0.11 per unit of third-party billing against under £0.07 for inbound and outbound handled in-house — roughly 40% cheaper, and up to 70% cheaper in the proof of concept run across three sites.

  • Consolidation is not optional

    At 11% of throughput already consolidated the network still ran above 86% utilisation. Absorbing growth means more consolidation, so the only real question is which mode carries it.

  • The two modes are complements

    If a bulk order can be consumed by one site in a week, ship direct. If the network can consume it but no single site can, consolidate in-house. If neither can, use the 3PL.

  • Simulation before capital

    Scenarios at 11% and 20% consolidation, split across mixes of 3PL and in-house, expose an EBITDA swing worth roughly £10M a year — before a single pallet moves.

From model to technology pack

  • Replaced manual, spreadsheet-based network planning with an optimiser-driven multi-echelon distribution feature in the supply-chain platform.
  • Paired the software with a materials-handling change so storage totes move between sites without double-handling the stock.
  • Framed the business case around three explicit assumptions, each tested empirically rather than asserted.
  • Sequenced the roadmap to a production release, with the optimiser's in-situ performance held as the main delivery risk.

digital twin · optimization · enterprise product

Three ways to move a unit

Cost-to-serve per unit, modelled end to end for one destination site with everything else held equal.

Direct supply

£0.06 / unit

SupplierFulfilment centreCustomer

3PL consolidation

£0.23 / unit

Supplier3PL cross-dockFulfilment centreCustomer

In-house consolidation

£0.10 / unit

SupplierParent siteFulfilment centreCustomer

Simulated scenarios and EBITDA margin

728M units a year across the network. The spread between the best and worst consolidation mix is worth more than a full point of margin.

  • Full direct11.47%

    No consolidation — not feasible at volume

  • 11% via 3PL (today)10.95%

    £10.2M annual cost of consolidation

  • 11% in-house11.10%

    £2.9M better than today

  • 11% split 50/5011.03%

    £1.5M better than today

  • 20% via 3PL10.52%

    £18.9M annual cost

  • 20% in-house10.25%

    Capacity relief at scale

The decision rule the optimiser encodes

  • Bulk quantity consumable by one site within 7 daysDirect supply
  • Consumable by the network but not by one siteIn-house consolidation
  • Not consumable by the network within 7 days3PL cross-dock

Storage released as consolidation scales

Each scenario shows how many suppliers move to consolidated supply, how many totes travel across the network, and how much grid storage is freed.

  • 100k units consolidated8,296 totes

    15 suppliers · 4,515 totes shipped across the network

  • 500k units consolidated34,000 totes

    7 suppliers · 29,477 totes shipped across the network

  • 1M units consolidated60,102 totes

    196 suppliers · 45,290 totes shipped across the network